A Retrospective, of sorts

Yesterday I got my second Pfizer Covid 19 vaccine shot.  So in either 2 weeks (via CDC guidelines) or 1 week (via Pfizer guidelines) I will be fully vaccinated.  That is good news and I am thankful for that.  But I can't decide what that really means for me.  After a year of life being on hold, what activities will I actually resume?  What degree of "normal" will I be comfortable with and how soon?  I really don't know and I don't know how to know.  That got me thinking about the past year and the future.

By chance, I happened to watch a video this afternoon that really just had an affect on me.  It actually brought a little tear to my eye (full disclosure, if you know me, you know that's not especially hard to do).  The video was of Hozier singing Bridge Over Troubled Water last June in a dark, empty stadium with a socially distanced orchestra playing.  And while I still ultimately prefer the original Simon and Garfunkel version of the song, to me, this version just seemed to so embody this past year - the darkness, the emptiness, the distance, but also the message of the song, that you have someone there for you in the darkness.  It was just very moving.

I can't help but wonder, when I look back on this time in my life, how will I remember it?  If my grandchildren ask me what it was like to live through the Covid 19 pandemic (because they will likely all be too young to really remember it for themselves), what will I tell them?  I would love to be able to show them that video, and maybe I will be able to. There has been a lot of darkness and uncertainty, with more yet to come, I'm sure.  But there have also been points of light.  While we lost my mother-in-law to Covid in January, we also found out we are going to have another grandchild this coming August.  While we have lost a whole year of being able to visit with one granddaughter, and much fewer visits with our other granddaughter, my husband and I have grown even closer than we were before the pandemic started.  In many ways we've been able to return to what our relationship was in the beginning, when we first met and fell in love, and that has been a wonderful blessing.

Also, one year ago yesterday, I wrote a post about putting the pandemic's death toll numbers in perspective with other causes of death.  According to the New York Times, as of today the US death toll stands at 541,037, which puts it within the estimated range given a year ago, and stands at slightly less than the 2017 total for cancer deaths.  Somewhat interesting to look back at, for whatever it's worth.

Fear and healthy respect

Things are really getting to me.  The funny thing for me is that my life really hasn't changed that much because of the pandemic.  Before all this started, I went out a little more than I do now, but not much.  My life was mostly spent at home with the people who live in my house, and it still is.  But all the uncertainty has really begun to weigh on my mind.  I find myself doing COVID-19  math with Alabama's numbers and the US numbers -  what percentage has been tested, what percentage of those tested are testing positive, what percentage of those testing positive are dying.  The percentage are relatively small (for Alabama they are 2%, 7%, and 3% respectively), but somehow that still isn't comforting. 

I wish that we could transition from fear (or denial) to a healthy respect for the virus and the situation.  I wish that I knew what activities were actually safe and which weren't.  Is it really okay to get take-out from a restaurant?  Am I really safe if I wear a mask in public and wash or sanitize my hands once I'm out of public?  Does wiping down my groceries really do any good?  But with so little reliable information out there it seems difficult to know, so fear remains the dominant emotion and healthy respect is difficult to achieve. For society as a whole it seems even more difficult, with some groups in total denial of gravity of situation and, as with most things these days, people's opinions being influenced by their political inclinations. 

I know that in general, people just want things to return to normal as quickly as possible, but as my priest said earlier in the pandemic, things won't go back to normal.  There will be a new normal, which is, as of yet, unknown.  Unknown is hard to deal with, at least for me.

Putting things in perspective

As I've mentioned here before, I have generalized anxiety disorder.  One way that I try to combat my anxiety is to put things into perspective.  That's not always easy to do, mind you, but I try.  With all the fear and speculation swirling around due to the coronavirus (SARS CoV2) and it's resulting illness (COVID 19), my brain has been tending to waffle between "It'll be okay" and "We're all going to die."  So in order to deal with that, I've been looking at some numbers to try to put things into perspective.  Here is what I have found.

A New York Times article from March 13, 2020 reports a possible US death toll for the virus ranging from 200,000 to 1.7 million people,

Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

These are disturbing numbers, no doubt.  The article does, however, say that these numbers were from the end of February and do not take into account the measures currently being applied to mitigate the situation.

Taking these numbers as my guide, I started looking at some statistics.  The most recent absolute numbers I could find for US mortality on the CDC website were for 2018.  In 2018, the total mortality in the US from all causes was 2,839,205 (source).  This is an increase over the previous year and our death rate has continued to increase, slightly, from 2008 to the present, according to Macrotrends.net.  For a breakdown of the numbers among the top 10 leading causes of death, I had to look at the 2017 numbers (no idea why those are the most recent on the CDC website).  These are the numbers I found:

Heart Disease = 647,457
Cancer = 599,108
Accidents = 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory disease = 160,201
Stroke = 146,383
Alzheimer's = 121,404
Diabetes = 83,564
Flu & Pneumonia = 55,633
Kidney disease = 50,633
Suicide = 47,173

A little perspective.  The lower number of the estimate (200,000) would be more than those who died in accidents, but less than those who died of cancer or heart disease.  If it was the higher of the estimated numbers, it would be comparable, though slightly below, the total of the top 5 causes of death combined.  These are all staggering numbers, but at least now I have a little perspective of what those numbers actually mean.

I did find another article, this one from the Washington Post dated March 11, 2020, that had a much wider range in its estimate.

His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said.

What struck me (other than the wildly lower best case numbers) were that these deaths could take place over a period of 2 to 3 years.  If it were the worst case scenario numbers but over 3 years, it would actually make it lower than the number of death from heart disease in that same period.  Still a terrible loss of life, and I'm a firm believer in the "Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee" philosophy.

Hopefully a little perspective will help me to keep calm and carry on.  But as Douglas Adam suggested, the last thing a person really needs is perspective...

[Upon putting his wife into his newly created "Total Perspective Vortex"] To Trin Tragula's horror, the shock completely annihilated her brain; but to his satisfaction he realized that he had proved conclusively that if life is going to exist in a Universe of this size, then the one thing it cannot afford to have is a sense of proportion.  (The Restaurant at the End of the Universe p. 77)

How clean is too clean?

I found this article in today's WaPo very interesting: Immune Systems Increasingly On Attack. The article seems to indicate that we may be keeping our immediate environments too clean for our own good, or particularly our kids' own good. It would seem that sterilizing everything isn't such a good idea after all. Of course nothing is known for certain at this point, but the article is interesting nonetheless.

Inflammatory Breast Cancer

Via KOMO News 4 - KOMO 4 News Special Report: Inflammatory Breast Cancer

SEATTLE - Breast cancer is something women think they know all about: Look for lumps; have mammograms; see our doctors.

But none of that will save you from one silent breast cancer killer that women know virtually nothing about.

It's called "inflammatory breast cancer," and it's something every woman must know about.

[. . .]

Andi was just 16 when she died from IBC. She was too embarrassed to tell her mother her breast looked funny. It was slightly enlarged and her nipple was inverted -classic IBC symptoms.

Other symptoms include: rapid increase in breast size, redness, skin hot to the touch, persistent itching, an orange peel texture to the breast and thickening of breast tissue.

I had never heard of inflammatory breast cancer before. It definitely sounds like something that all women should make themselves aware of. Especially since, according to the article, many women with IBC are misdiagnosed as having an insect bite. The whole article is definitely worth reading.

H/T: Sherry Taylor via email.

Comprehensive v. Abstinence-only sex education

Via WaPo - Abstinence Programs Face Rejection

The number of states refusing federal money for "abstinence-only" sex education programs jumped sharply in the past year as evidence mounted that the approach is ineffective.

At least 14 states have either notified the federal government that they will no longer be requesting the funds or are not expected to apply, forgoing more than $15 million of the $50 million available, officials said. Virginia was the most recent state to opt out.

Two other states -- Ohio and Washington -- have applied but stipulated they would use the money for comprehensive sex education, effectively making themselves ineligible, federal officials said.

[. . .]

The jump in states opting out follows a series of reports questioning the effectiveness of the approach, including one commissioned by Congress that was released earlier this year. In addition, federal health officials reported last week that a 14-year drop in teenage pregnancy rates appeared to have reversed.

I find this article interesting because I've never thought that abstinence-only education was a very wise idea. I have not looked closely at the numbers, but I'm also well aware that both sides will find numbers and ways to use the numbers to their own advantage, so I'm not that interested in seeking them out either. The one thing that I do know is that no education program is ever going to get all teenagers to abstain from having sex. I have no problem with schools teaching that abstinence is the only sure way to avoid pregnancy and sexually-transmitted diseases, but sex is also a natural human behavior that begins to appeal to individuals when they enter puberty. If all they know is that abstinence is the only sure way to avoid these problems, but then they decide they are not willing to go that route, they will not know how to protect themselves and are more likely to find themselves in bad situation. I believe they should at least know that there are other options that will help them to protect their health and well-being. I think that is what health education (and as a subset sex education) is all about.

We should teach them about the physiological aspects of our sexuality, the psychological repercussions of engaging in sexual activity, and the physical consequences that can result from both protected and unprotected sex. But it is also of the utmost importance that they know how to protect themselves if they decide to engage in these activities. It should not be about morality. Let their parents teach them about morality. Some would say that we should let their parents teach them about sex education, but I disagree. We should have trained professions who can teach them about the scientific aspects of sex and leave the moralizing at home.

Voluntary Infant Cold Medication Recall

If you have small children (under the age of 6) you should check out this list of recalled infant cold medicines from Consumer Healthcare Products Association. It is especially important for children under 2 but also affects children up to age 5.

You are what you eat

Via CNN - If we are what we eat, Americans are corn and soy

Proteins and fats in your food are incorporated into your body and brain with potentially profound effects on your health and even your behavior.

[. . .]

"We are what we eat with respect to carbon, for sure. So if we eat a particular kind of food, and it has a particular kind of carbon in it, that's recorded in us, in our tissues, in our hair, in our fingernails, in the muscles," Dawson says.

[. . .]

"We're like corn chips walking because we really have a very, very large fraction of corn in our diets, and we actually can't help it because it's an additive in so many of the foods we find on the market shelves," Dawson says.

[. . .]

Americans also eat an extraordinary amount of soybean oil, another key ingredient in most processed foods.

Now apparently Europeans don't eat as much processed food as we Americans do. It makes me wonder, what the heck do they eat and how, as an American, do I avoid processed food. Also, it would seem that we could avoid anti-depressants if we just ate more fish.

Our bodies need a balance of omega-6 fatty acids like soybean oil and omega-3 fatty acids like fish oil, Hibbeln says. Over the last century, our diets have shifted almost completely to omega-6 fatty acids.

"It's quite likely that most of the diseases of modern civilization, major depression, heart disease and obesity are linked to the radical and dramatic shift in the composition of the fats in the food supply," Hibbeln says.

Our brains are composed of fatty acids, and an absence of omega-3 fatty acids can actually change our behavior, according to Hibbeln.

Hibbeln's research suggests diets containing omega-3 fatty acids found in fish reduce depression, aggression and anger, while improving mental well-being.

Now my question is, what if you eat fish that has been fried in soybean oil or corn oil? And I thought soy was supposed to be good for you anyway. Who knows anymore?

More Food Recalls (Sara Lee Edition)

Via the FDA - Precautionary Recall Alert Issued for Selected Whole Wheat Fresh Bread Products

Sara Lee Food & Beverage is issuing a
voluntarily and precautionary recall of selected whole wheat bread products produced at the company's Meridian, Miss. bakery and sold at grocery retailers in the following areas of the country: the entire states of Mississippi and Alabama, most of Arkansas, far southeastern Missouri, western Georgia, southwestern Tennessee, southeastern Louisiana and the panhandle of Florida. The affected products may contain small pieces of metal.

The link above has the entire list of recalled breads. I swear it is getting to the point where one has to be suspect of anything not grown or produced at one's own home. It is just ridiculous.

More tainted products from China

Via CNN - FDA: Throw away toothpaste made in China

The government warned consumers on Friday to avoid using toothpaste made in China because it may contain a poisonous chemical used in antifreeze.

[. . .]

Officials said they are primarily concerned about toothpaste sold at bargain retail outlets. The ingredient in question, called DEG, is used as a lower-cost sweetener and thickening agent. The highest concentration of the chemical found in toothpaste so far was between 3 percent and 4 percent of the product's overall weight.

"It does not belong in toothpaste even in small concentrations," said the FDA's Deborah M. Autor.

[. . .]

The alert says the agency found DEG in three products manufactured by Goldcredit International Trading in China. The products are Cooldent Fluoride, Cooldent Spearmint and Cooldent ICE. Analysis of the products revealed they contained between 3 percent and 4 percent DEG.

The agency also found the chemical in one product manufactured by Suzhou City Jinmao Daily Chemical Co. in China. Analysis of that product, Shir Fresh Mint Fluoride Paste, found it contained about 1 percent DEG.

As they always say, buyer beware, but this is getting ridiculous.

What is it all for?

WaPo reports - Tainted Chinese Imports Common

Dead pets and melamine-tainted food notwithstanding, change will prove difficult, policy experts say, in large part because U.S. companies have become so dependent on the Chinese economy that tighter rules on imports stand to harm the U.S. economy, too.

"So many U.S. companies are directly or indirectly involved in China now, the commercial interest of the United States these days has become to allow imports to come in as quickly and smoothly as possible," said Robert B. Cassidy, a former assistant U.S. trade representative for China and now director of international trade and services for Kelley Drye Collier Shannon, a Washington law firm.

As a result, the United States finds itself "kowtowing to China," Cassidy said, even as that country keeps sending American consumers adulterated and mislabeled foods.

It's not just about cheap imports, added Carol Tucker Foreman, a former assistant secretary of agriculture now at the Consumer Federation of America.

"Our farmers and food processors have drooled for years to be able to sell their food to that massive market," Foreman said. "The Chinese counterfeit. They have a serious piracy problem. But we put up with it because we want to sell to them."

To me, this story brings home the importance of answering the question, "What is the role of government?" Is it to protect its citizens or is it something else entirely? I understand that we need a healthy economy and that the economies of various states are becoming more and more intertwined. However, if we are willing to allow tainted foods into our country, just for the sake of economic growth or stability, are we not cutting off our nose to spite our face, so to speak? Is it worth it? That is always the ultimate question, "Is it worth it?" We allow so many things in the name of economics and short term gains. When are we going to start to look at long term health effects, or does that just fall under the category of acceptable losses?

Work at your own risk (the fox is guarding the hen house)

Via The NYT - OSHA Leaves Worker Safety in Hands of Industry

Across Washington, political appointees — often former officials of the industries they now oversee — have eased regulations or weakened enforcement of rules on issues like driving hours for truckers, logging in forests and corporate mergers.

Since George W. Bush became president, OSHA has issued the fewest significant standards in its history, public health experts say. It has imposed only one major safety rule. The only significant health standard it issued was ordered by a federal court.

It is one thing to do away with truly outdated regulations, it is another thing entirely to practically stop doing the job the agency is designed to do. January 20, 2009 can't get here soon enough to suit me.

Eat at your own risk

Via WaPo - FDA Was Aware of Dangers To Food

The Food and Drug Administration has known for years about contamination problems at a Georgia peanut butter plant and on California spinach farms that led to disease outbreaks that killed three people, sickened hundreds, and forced one of the biggest product recalls in U.S. history, documents and interviews show.

Overwhelmed by huge growth in the number of food processors and imports, however, the agency took only limited steps to address the problems and relied on producers to police themselves, according to agency documents.

Yeah, self-policing that always works.

Pet Food Recall

MSNBC - 60 million containers of pet food recalled

Eukanuba, Iams and store brands tied to kidney failure, deaths

A major manufacturer of dog and cat food sold under Wal-Mart, Safeway, Kroger and other store brands recalled 60 million containers of wet pet food Friday after reports of kidney failure and deaths.

[. . .]

Menu Foods did not immediately provide a full list of brand names and lot numbers covered by the recall, saying they would be posted on its Web site — www.menufoods.com/recall — early Saturday. Consumers with questions can call (866) 463-6738.

My cats don't eat wet food, but my dog does eat Wal-Mart wet dog food in the foil pouches. She doesn't seem to be showing any of the symptoms they mention, but she has been eating less lately. I hope she is okay.

Coffee and a video

I was reading a BBC News article about the effects of coffee on alertness (which was generally useless) but it reminded me of an old episode of WKRP in Cincinnati where Johnny Fever was taking part in an experiment to show the effects of alcohol use on alertness. He was supposed to get less alert but steadily got faster instead of slower. I looked at YouTube and GoFish but couldn't find a clip of it. I did find this clip, which is just classic and so representative of what a great show WKRP was. So here is a totally unrelated clip: Johnny Fever runs from the phone cops

Miraculous

BBC News - Miami baby sets premature record

Amillia Taylor is believed to be the first baby ever known to have survived after a gestation period of less than 23 weeks.

She weighed a mere 284 grams (10 ounces) at birth on 24 October.

Doctors generally consider that babies weighing less than 400g at birth are not viable.

Miraculous is the only word to describe the survival of this child. I'm sure she still has a long battle ahead of her. A friend of mine was just telling me last week that her niece's premature baby was coming from the hospital and she was born at about 25 or 27 weeks, I forget which. I though that was amazing. Modern medicine has come a long way.

More Salmonella related food recalls

MSN - Tainted Cantaloupe, Baby Food Recalled

The tainted-food scare widened Saturday with the recall of fresh cantaloupe and selected jars of organic baby food.

Dole Fresh Fruit Co. recalled several thousand cartons of imported cantaloupes after the fruit tested positive for salmonella, the bacteria involved in the nationwide peanut butter recall earlier this week.

Dole late Friday said the recall covered roughly 6,104 cartons of Costa Rican cantaloupes distributed to wholesalers in the eastern United States and Quebec between Feb. 5 and Feb. 8, the Associated Press reported. There were no reports of illness.

And Salmonella is not the only contaminate causing problems these days:

Meanwhile, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration warned consumers late Friday not to use certain jars of Earth's Best Organic 2 Apple Peach Barley Wholesome Breakfast baby food because they may be contaminated with Clostridium botulinum, which can cause botulism, a life-threatening illness.

So much for "organic" being safer. In reality, I've heard before that "organic" foods actually have more of a tendency to be tainted with germs because of the organic nature of the fertilizers used to grow them.

Morphine, for a cough?

BBC News - Tests show morphine eases coughs

The patients responded quickly to the morphine treatment, which started at 5mg twice daily.

This benefit peaked after five days of treatment and continued through the remaining four weeks of the trial.

All of the patients had suffered from their persistent cough for at least three months.

[. . .]

Dr Morice explained: "Chronic cough can have a devastating effect on the quality of life of sufferers.

I'm sure that a chronic cough is miserable, but morphine seems like an awfully strong and potentially dangerous drug to prescribe for a cough. But then again, I'm no doctor.

Peanut butter recall update

Via the ConAgra Website - News Release: Peter Pan Peanut Butter and Great Value Peanut Butter Products Beginning with Product Code 2111 Recalled for Possible Salmonella Contamination

If consumers have this product, they should discard it, but save the product lid. For a full refund, consumers must return the Peter Pan Peanut Butter or Great Value Peanut Butter product lid along with their name and mailing address to ConAgra Foods, P.O. Box 57078, Irvine, CA 92619-7078.

Now that is what I needed to know.

Update: ConAgra has now changed the address people should send the lids to: ConAgra Foods, P.O. Box 3768, Omaha, NE 68103.

Yikes!

CNN - Salmonella outbreak linked to 2 peanut butter brands

A salmonella outbreak that has slowly grown to nearly 300 cases in 39 states since August has been linked to tainted peanut butter, federal health officials said Wednesday.

[. . .]

About 85 percent of the infected people said they ate peanut butter, CDC officials said.

How salmonella got into peanut butter is still under investigation, Lynch said.

[. . .]

The Food and Drug Administration warned consumers not to eat certain jars of Peter Pan or Great Value peanut butter because of the risk of contamination.

The affected jars have a product code on the lid that begins with the number "2111." The affected jars are made by ConAgra in a single facility in Sylvester, Georgia, the FDA said.

First of all, it seems odd that salmonella would be in peanut putter. Second, it seems odd that only 85 percent of the people effected said they ate peanut butter. Third, I have a half-eaten jar of Peter Pan peanut butter with a product code beginning "2111". Since no one got sick eating the first half does that mean it is safe to finish or should I just throw it out?

UPDATE: This article at Market Watch says:

The company added that consumers should discard the affected peanut butter, but save the product lid to get a full refund.

The problem is it doesn't tell you what to do with the lid to get the refund. (Updated info here)