Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Watching Wilma - Cat 5 Hurricane

This morning the National Hurricane Center is reporting that Wilma has strengthened to a Cat. 5 Hurricane with 175 MPH winds. The internal pressure is probably the lowest on record.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.
It's record breaking status is not certain at this point,
HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
Strengthening is not really expected and considerable weakening is predicted before Wilma makes landfall in Florida. The current information suggests that Wilma will likely weaken to atleast a Cat. 3 (still a major storm) before landfall in approximately 96 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT
UPDATE: James Joyner at Outside the Beltway has more information.
h/t: Poliblog

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