Iraq has been plunged into the early stages of civil war by its government's policy of allowing armed Shia militias to infiltrate security forces, accentuating a spate of sectarian killings, according to a former prime minister.
But he also expresses hope that the progress toward civil war can be arrested.
He believes that the constitution's drafting and the December elections mean Iraq could be "moving in the right direction at last".
Obviously no one knows for sure what will happen in Iraq's future, because it is a complicated situation with many variables working at the same time. However, a look at our country's past will show that a civil war can eventually arise when the constitution does not fully address, or deal with, issues of grave importance. It would seem that our country was more cohesive, ethnically and religiously, than Iraq, but we still required a civil war before we could finally work out our difference. Civil war does not automatically mean permanent national division, obviously, but it seems likely that violence will continue, and continue to escalate, unless all divisive issues are dealt with up-front. As long as some groups, in this case the Sunni, feel that the constitution is working against them or not protecting their rights, the likelihood that they will submit to the constitution in the long run does not seem promising.
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